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財經觀察:嚴寒消退后美國經濟復蘇更明顯

來源: 南方日報網絡版     時間: 2019年07月14日 03:24:26
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(  新)(華)(網)(華)(盛)(頓)(4月)(17日)(電)((記)(者)(高)(攀)( 鄭)(啟)(航)()隨)(著)(氣)(溫)(回)(暖)(,美)(國)(經)(濟)(逐)(漸)(擺)(脫)(過)(去)(幾)(個)(月)(嚴)(寒)(天)(氣)(的)(不)(利)(影)(響)(,展)(現)(出)(更)(多)(復)(蘇)(的)(跡)(象)(,經)(濟)(學)(家)(期)(待)(美)(國)(整)(體)(經)(濟)(增)(長)(動)(能)(將)(隨)(天)(氣)(轉)(暖)(而)(走)(強)(?! ∮?(于)(美)(國)(家)(庭)(去)(杠)(桿)(化)(基)(本)(結)(束)(和)(財)(政)(緊)(縮)(的)(負)(面)(沖)(擊)(逐)(漸)(消)(退)(,不)(少)(觀)(察)(人)(士)(曾)(在)(去)(年)(底)(預)(測)(2014年)(將)(是)(金)(融)(危)(機)(以)(來)(美)(國)(經)(濟)(最)(好)(的)(一)(年)(。美)(國)(總)(統)(奧)(巴)(馬)(也)(稱)(2014年)(將)(是)(美)(國)(經)(濟)(“突)(破)(性)(的)(一)(年)(”。但)(從)(去)(年)(底)(持)(續)(至)(今)(年)(初)(的)(嚴)(寒)(天)(氣)(和)(席)(卷)(美)(國)(大)(部)(分)(地)(區)(的)(暴)(風)(雪)(,令)(大)(家)(對)(美)(國)(經)(濟)(的)(樂)(觀)(看)(法)(遭)(受)(嚴)(峻)(考)(驗)(?! ∈?(異)(常)(嚴)(寒)(天)(氣)(影)(響)(,人)(們)(交)(通)(出)(行)(和)(工)(作)(生)(活)(受)(到)(極)(大)(影)(響)(,出)(門)(購)(物)(大)(幅)(減)(少)(,不)(少)(商)(家)(暫)(停)(營)(業)(,一)(些)(戶)(外)(建)(筑)(活)(動)(被)(迫)(停)(工)(。1月)(份)(美)(國)(零)(售)(銷)(售)(、制)(造)(業)(及)(就)(業)(等)(數)(據)(均)(不)(理)(想)(,當)(月)(制)(造)(業)(采)(購)(經)(理)(人)(指)(數)(曾)(降)(至)(2013年)(5月)(以)(來)(的)(最)(低)(點)(,顯)(示)(美)(國)(經)(濟)(在)(今)(年)(初)(明)(顯)(減)(速)(?! ∶?(國)(智)(庫)(彼)(得)(森)(國)(際)(經)(濟)(研)(究)(所)(高)(級)(研)(究)(員)(戴)(維)(·斯)(托)(克)(頓)(預)(計)(,嚴)(寒)(天)(氣)(將)(拖)(累)(今)(年)(第)(一)(季)(度)(美)(國)(經)(濟)(增)(長)(約)(1個)(百)(分)(點)(,當)(季)(經)(濟)(增)(速)(預)(計)(僅)(略)(高)(于)(1%,遠)(低)(于)(去)(年)(第)(四)(季)(度)(的)(增)(長)(2.6%?! 〔?(過)(,隨)(著)(暴)(風)(雪)(天)(氣)(消)(退)(,美)(國)(經)(濟)(開)(始)(出)(現)(回)(升)(跡)(象)(。3月)(份)(,美)(國)(制)(造)(業)(采)(購)(經)(理)(人)(指)(數)(從)(前)(月)(的)(53.2升)(至)(53.7,非)(制)(造)(業)(活)(動)(指)(數)(從)(前)(月)(的)(51.6升)(至)(53.1,顯)(示)(制)(造)(業)(和)(服)(務)(業)(擴)(張)(步)(伐)(加)(快)(。3月)(份)(美)(國)(商)(品)(零)(售)(額)(更)(是)(環)(比)(上)(升)(1.1%,創)(18個)(月)(來)(最)(大)(升)(幅)(,顯)(示)(嚴)(寒)(天)(氣)(過)(后)(消)(費)(逐)(漸)(復)(蘇)(?! ∶?(聯)(儲)(日)(前)(發)(布)(的)(全)(國)(經)(濟)(形)(勢)(調)(查)(報)(告)(也)(顯)(示)(,隨)(著)(天)(氣)(好)(轉)(顧)(客)(流)(量)(增)(加)(,多)(數)(地)(區)(居)(民)(消)(費)(回)(升)(,汽)(車)(銷)(售)(增)(加)(,旅)(游)(業)(勢)(頭)(良)(好)(???(投)(宏)(觀)(高)(級)(經)(濟)(學)(家)(保)(羅)(·戴)(爾)(斯)(認)(為)(,在)(嚴)(寒)(天)(氣)(導)(致)(的)(疲)(軟)(過)(后)(,美)(國)(經)(濟)(正)(展)(現)(更)(多)(基)(本)(面)(良)(好)(因)(素)(?! ∶?(國)(勞)(工)(部)(近)(期)(公)(布)(的)(數)(據)(顯)(示)(,3月)(份)(美)(國)(非)(農)(業)(部)(門)(新)(增)(就)(業)(崗)(位)(19.2萬)(個)(,同)(時)(前)(兩)(個)(月)(新)(增)(崗)(位)(總)(數)(上)(調)(3.7萬)(個)(,這)(樣)(第)(一)(季)(度)(月)(均)(新)(增)(崗)(位)(數)(量)(達)(到)(近)(18萬)(個)(,與)(過)(去)(12個)(月)(18.9萬)(的)(月)(均)(水)(平)(相)(差)(不)(大)(,說)(明)(美)(國)(就)(業)(市)(場)(的)(潛)(在)(增)(長)(動)(能)(并)(未)(受)(到)(嚴)(寒)(天)(氣)(太)(大)(影)(響)(?! 【?(業)(市)(場)(的)(持)(續)(改)(善)(有)(助)(于)(增)(加)(居)(民)(收)(入)(和)(改)(善)(居)(民)(對)(未)(來)(收)(入)(的)(預)(期)(,這)(兩)(者)(都)(是)(擴)(大)(消)(費)(的)(重)(要)(因)(素)(,而)(個)(人)(消)(費)(開)(支)(約)(占)(美)(國)(經)(濟)(總)(量)(的)(70%,是)(美)(國)(經)(濟)(增)(長)(的)(主)(要)(動)(力)(。斯)(托)(克)(頓)(表)(示)(,受)(股)(市)(和)(房)(價)(雙)(雙)(上)(漲)(帶)(動)(,美)(國)(家)(庭)(財)(富)(持)(續)(回)(升)(和)(資)(產)(負)(債)(表)(進)(一)(步)(改)(善)(,會)(為)(消)(費)(支)(出)(擴)(張)(奠)(定)(基)(礎)(,成)(為)(支)(撐)(美)(國)(經)(濟)(增)(長)(的)(重)(要)(動)(力)(。但)(他)(同)(時)(指)(出)(,未)(來)(美)(國)(房)(市)(復)(蘇)(形)(勢)(如)(何)(還)(有)(待)(密)(切)(觀)(察)(?! 〗?(期)(公)(布)(的)(數)(據)(顯)(示)(美)(國)(房)(市)(復)(蘇)(仍)(然)(面)(臨)(阻)(力)(。2月)(份)(美)(國)(舊)(房)(和)(新)(房)(銷)(量)(均)(環)(比)(大)(幅)(下)(滑)(,3月)(份)(新)(房)(開)(工)(量)(環)(比)(上)(升)(,但)(反)(映)(未)(來)(走)(勢)(的)(新)(房)(建)(筑)(許)(可)(證)(發)(放)(量)(環)(比)(下)(降)(。在)(此)(之)(前)(,受)(待)(售)(房)(屋)(庫)(存)(緊)(張)(、抵)(押)(貸)(款)(利)(率)(相)(對)(上)(升)(、房)(價)(持)(續)(走)(高)(、勞)(動)(力)(和)(建)(筑)(材)(料)(短)(缺)(等)(因)(素)(影)(響)(,以)(及)(潛)(在)(購)(房)(者)(購)(房)(可)(負)(擔)(能)(力)(有)(所)(下)(降)(,美)(國)(樓)(市)(已)(明)(顯)(降)(溫)(?! 【?(濟)(學)(家)(認)(為)(,雖)(然)(美)(國)(房)(市)(復)(蘇)(有)(所)(放)(緩)(,但)(美)(國)(整)(體)(經)(濟)(增)(長)(將)(隨)(著)(天)(氣)(回)(暖)(而)(反)(彈)(。美)(國)(宏)(觀)(經)(濟)(咨)(詢)(公)(司)(預)(計)(今)(年)(美)(國)(第)(二)(季)(度)(經)(濟)(增)(速)(將)(從)(第)(一)(季)(度)(的)(0.5%反)(彈)(至)(3.8%。瑞)(士)(信)(貸)(銀)(行)(預)(計)(今)(年)(美)(國)(經)(濟)(增)(速)(將)(從)(第)(一)(季)(度)(的)(1.3%增)(至)(第)(二)(季)(度)(的)(3.1%?!痘?(爾)(街)(日)(報)(》日)(前)(進)(行)(的)(調)(查)(則)(顯)(示)(,經)(濟)(學)(家)(預)(計)(今)(年)(第)(一)(季)(度)(美)(國)(經)(濟)(將)(增)(長)(1.5%,第)(二)(和)(第)(三)(季)(度)(將)(分)(別)(增)(長)(3%,第)(四)(季)(度)(將)(增)(長)(3.1%?! ≡?(擔)(任)(美)(聯)(儲)(首)(席)(經)(濟)(學)(家)(的)(斯)(托)(克)(頓)(告)(訴)(新)(華)(社)(記)(者)(,隨)(著)(美)(國)(經)(濟)(穩)(步)(復)(蘇)(和)(財)(政)(緊)(縮)(方)(面)(的)(拖)(累)(減)(少)(,美)(聯)(儲)(維)(持)(寬)(松)(貨)(幣)(政)(策)(的)(必)(要)(性)(下)(降)(,預)(計)(美)(聯)(儲)(將)(于)(今)(年)(底)(完)(全)(結)(束)(購)(債)(計)(劃)(,到)(2015年)(中)(期)(開)(始)(加)(息)(。他)(指)(出)(,就)(業)(市)(場)(和)(通)(脹)(形)(勢)(將)(是)(決)(定)(美)(聯)(儲)(加)(息)(時)(機)(的)(關)(鍵)(指)(標)(,如)(果)(到)(2015年)(美)(國)(通)(脹)(水)(平)(仍)(未)(回)(升)(至)(1.5%以)(上)(,美)(聯)(儲)(將)(推)(遲)(啟)(動)(加)(息)(?! “?(照)(美)(聯)(儲)(青)(睞)(的)(個)(人)(消)(費)(支)(出)(價)(格)(指)(數)(衡)(量)(,今)(年)(2月)(份)(美)(國)(通)(脹)(率)(為)(0.9%,遠)(低)(于)(美)(聯)(儲)(設)(置)(的)(2%的)(通)(脹)(目)(標)(。美)(國)(商)(務)(部)(的)(數)(據)(顯)(示)(,美)(國)(通)(脹)(率)(已)(連)(續)(22個)(月)(低)(于)(這)(一)(目)(標)(。美)(聯)(儲)(主)(席)(耶)(倫)(日)(前)(對)(低)(通)(脹)(表)(達)(了)(擔)(憂)(,重)(申)(美)(聯)(儲)(將)(繼)(續)(保)(持)(貨)(幣)(政)(策)(適)(度)(寬)(松)(來)(支)(持)(經)(濟)(增)(長)(,在)(結)(束)(量)(化)(寬)(松)(和)(啟)(動)(加)(息)(之)(間)(將)(有)(相)(當)(一)(段)(時)(間)(間)(隔)(?! ∽?(者)(:高)(攀)( 鄭)(啟)(航)(
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